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	<title>Comments on: After the oil is gone</title>
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	<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/</link>
	<description>Making the Connections</description>
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		<title>By: Jorge</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-9066</link>
		<dc:creator>Jorge</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jan 2006 21:04:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-9066</guid>
		<description>Nixing the gloom and doomers??

Albertaâ€™s Dirty Secret is Outâ€¦
&gt; by Matt Badiali 
&gt; 
&gt; 54,360 square miles. 
&gt; 
&gt; That is the extent of the Alberta Tar Sands in Western Canada.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Itâ€™s comparable to the total land area of Floridaâ€¦ but thereâ€™s
&gt; much more oil in the 
&gt; Alberta Tar Sands than in Florida. In fact, more oil is locked
&gt; in this deposit than 
&gt; in all of the Middle Eastern countries combined. 
&gt; 
&gt; However, Tar Sands oil is very different from what the sheiks
&gt; pump out of the groundâ€¦ 
&gt; itâ€™s dirty, literally. But that dirty oil is one of the most
&gt; important petroleum deposits 
&gt; in the worldâ€¦ a deposit that will make investors very wealthy
&gt; over the next few decades. 
&gt; Let me explain.
&gt; 
&gt; The oil in the Tar Sands is like soda that has gone flat.
&gt; Imagine a normal oil deposit is 
&gt; like a regular bottle of soda. The oil is mixed with gas and
&gt; under pressure. If the bottle 
&gt; cap leaks, then the gas escapes and the soda goes flat. 
&gt; 
&gt; Leave a glass of soda in your car in the summer, and the soda
&gt; will evaporate into thick 
&gt; syrup. Thatâ€™s essentially what happened to the oil that became
&gt; the Tar Sands. It leaked 
&gt; into an ocean and all the light fractions were lost. The heavy
&gt; oil mixed with the bottom 
&gt; sediments. The remaining material, called bitumen, is similar
&gt; to molasses mixed with water, 
&gt; sand, and clay. Dirty oil!
&gt; 
&gt; There are two processes to get the oil out of the dirt.
&gt; 
&gt; The first is pit mining. Large excavators load the tar sand
&gt; into even larger dump trucks. 
&gt; Itâ€™s the ultimate economy of scale. These trucks are so big
&gt; that their tires are the biggest 
&gt; expense out there. Really! The tires cost so much money that
&gt; production is often reported in 
&gt; terms of tread wear. 
&gt; 
&gt; CBS aired a 60 Minutes special on the Tar Sands project last
&gt; Sunday. They interviewed the driver 
&gt; of one of these humongous dump trucks. There are 14 steps to
&gt; get up to the cab of the truck. 
&gt; Thatâ€™s like driving from the second floor of your house.
&gt; 
&gt; Mining is only the first step, however. Once out of the
&gt; ground, the oil must be separated from 
&gt; the dirt and muck. 
&gt; 
&gt; They use a process similar to a washing machine. The sand
&gt; falls to the bottom, and the oil rises 
&gt; to the top of the water. The oil is skimmed off the top and
&gt; sent away for processing. 
&gt; 
&gt; The second way to get the oil out of the ground is a process
&gt; called SAGD â€“ steam assisted gravity 
&gt; drainage. 
&gt; 
&gt; With this method, two wells are drilled into the Tar Sands,
&gt; one above the other. The upper well 
&gt; uses steam to heat the sediment in place. The hot oil collects
&gt; in the lower pipe and gets pumped 
&gt; to the surface, sand free. 
&gt; 
&gt; Once the oil is treated, the end product is one of the best
&gt; light, sweet crude oils on the market. 
&gt; Best of all, this sweet crude is coming from Canadaâ€¦ and the
&gt; last time I checked, nobody was lobbing 
&gt; missiles near the Tar Sands.
&gt; 
&gt; Since the 60 Minutes clip aired, a few of the main oil sands
&gt; companies like Suncor (SU) jumped in 
&gt; price. Suncor is up over 20% in less than a month. 
&gt; 
&gt; My advice is to wait for a cool offâ€¦ wait for a healthy
&gt; correction in priceâ€¦ and then make a long-term 
&gt; investment in â€œdirtyâ€ oil. Suncor is a great way to do this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nixing the gloom and doomers??</p>
<p>Albertaâ€™s Dirty Secret is Outâ€¦<br />
&gt; by Matt Badiali<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; 54,360 square miles.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; That is the extent of the Alberta Tar Sands in Western Canada.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; Itâ€™s comparable to the total land area of Floridaâ€¦ but thereâ€™s<br />
&gt; much more oil in the<br />
&gt; Alberta Tar Sands than in Florida. In fact, more oil is locked<br />
&gt; in this deposit than<br />
&gt; in all of the Middle Eastern countries combined.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; However, Tar Sands oil is very different from what the sheiks<br />
&gt; pump out of the groundâ€¦<br />
&gt; itâ€™s dirty, literally. But that dirty oil is one of the most<br />
&gt; important petroleum deposits<br />
&gt; in the worldâ€¦ a deposit that will make investors very wealthy<br />
&gt; over the next few decades.<br />
&gt; Let me explain.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; The oil in the Tar Sands is like soda that has gone flat.<br />
&gt; Imagine a normal oil deposit is<br />
&gt; like a regular bottle of soda. The oil is mixed with gas and<br />
&gt; under pressure. If the bottle<br />
&gt; cap leaks, then the gas escapes and the soda goes flat.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; Leave a glass of soda in your car in the summer, and the soda<br />
&gt; will evaporate into thick<br />
&gt; syrup. Thatâ€™s essentially what happened to the oil that became<br />
&gt; the Tar Sands. It leaked<br />
&gt; into an ocean and all the light fractions were lost. The heavy<br />
&gt; oil mixed with the bottom<br />
&gt; sediments. The remaining material, called bitumen, is similar<br />
&gt; to molasses mixed with water,<br />
&gt; sand, and clay. Dirty oil!<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; There are two processes to get the oil out of the dirt.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; The first is pit mining. Large excavators load the tar sand<br />
&gt; into even larger dump trucks.<br />
&gt; Itâ€™s the ultimate economy of scale. These trucks are so big<br />
&gt; that their tires are the biggest<br />
&gt; expense out there. Really! The tires cost so much money that<br />
&gt; production is often reported in<br />
&gt; terms of tread wear.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; CBS aired a 60 Minutes special on the Tar Sands project last<br />
&gt; Sunday. They interviewed the driver<br />
&gt; of one of these humongous dump trucks. There are 14 steps to<br />
&gt; get up to the cab of the truck.<br />
&gt; Thatâ€™s like driving from the second floor of your house.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; Mining is only the first step, however. Once out of the<br />
&gt; ground, the oil must be separated from<br />
&gt; the dirt and muck.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; They use a process similar to a washing machine. The sand<br />
&gt; falls to the bottom, and the oil rises<br />
&gt; to the top of the water. The oil is skimmed off the top and<br />
&gt; sent away for processing.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; The second way to get the oil out of the ground is a process<br />
&gt; called SAGD â€“ steam assisted gravity<br />
&gt; drainage.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; With this method, two wells are drilled into the Tar Sands,<br />
&gt; one above the other. The upper well<br />
&gt; uses steam to heat the sediment in place. The hot oil collects<br />
&gt; in the lower pipe and gets pumped<br />
&gt; to the surface, sand free.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; Once the oil is treated, the end product is one of the best<br />
&gt; light, sweet crude oils on the market.<br />
&gt; Best of all, this sweet crude is coming from Canadaâ€¦ and the<br />
&gt; last time I checked, nobody was lobbing<br />
&gt; missiles near the Tar Sands.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; Since the 60 Minutes clip aired, a few of the main oil sands<br />
&gt; companies like Suncor (SU) jumped in<br />
&gt; price. Suncor is up over 20% in less than a month.<br />
&gt;<br />
&gt; My advice is to wait for a cool offâ€¦ wait for a healthy<br />
&gt; correction in priceâ€¦ and then make a long-term<br />
&gt; investment in â€œdirtyâ€ oil. Suncor is a great way to do this.</p>
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		<title>By: eric</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-1050</link>
		<dc:creator>eric</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2005 04:18:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-1050</guid>
		<description>Ironically enough, because the oil _is_ going the best thing we can hope for _is_ the Venus Runaway Greenhouse scenario, with everyone getting wiped out for sure. Once the energy subsidy is gone, the &#039;Socialism or Barbarism&#039; option becomes limited only to barbarism. Anyone happy with the prospect of endless repeats of Medieval Europe, the Aztecs and Mayans, and so on? That&#039;s what is left: not some cosy &#039;now I&#039;ve finally got time for the kids and some sense of community! Anyone for woodwork?&#039; option, but slavery and serfdom. We had our chance and we appear to have well and truly blown it. We didn&#039;t get socialism, and (apart from the Paleolithic), we only got one shot at it, and it&#039;s all we&#039;ll get. In all seriousness, it&#039;s better that we get wiped out than have another ten or twenty thousand years of serfdom. (Of course the scenario is different if the &#039;crash&#039; is so &#039;bad&#039; it leaves our descendants hunter-gatherers with absolutely no knowledge of farming (and hence food surplus and class society). But the agricultural jinn is out of the bottle, and I don&#039;t see it going back...)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ironically enough, because the oil _is_ going the best thing we can hope for _is_ the Venus Runaway Greenhouse scenario, with everyone getting wiped out for sure. Once the energy subsidy is gone, the &#8216;Socialism or Barbarism&#8217; option becomes limited only to barbarism. Anyone happy with the prospect of endless repeats of Medieval Europe, the Aztecs and Mayans, and so on? That&#8217;s what is left: not some cosy &#8216;now I&#8217;ve finally got time for the kids and some sense of community! Anyone for woodwork?&#8217; option, but slavery and serfdom. We had our chance and we appear to have well and truly blown it. We didn&#8217;t get socialism, and (apart from the Paleolithic), we only got one shot at it, and it&#8217;s all we&#8217;ll get. In all seriousness, it&#8217;s better that we get wiped out than have another ten or twenty thousand years of serfdom. (Of course the scenario is different if the &#8216;crash&#8217; is so &#8216;bad&#8217; it leaves our descendants hunter-gatherers with absolutely no knowledge of farming (and hence food surplus and class society). But the agricultural jinn is out of the bottle, and I don&#8217;t see it going back&#8230;)</p>
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		<title>By: mary</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-1046</link>
		<dc:creator>mary</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2005 21:31:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-1046</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think it hurt anything to prepare for y2k, and this is MUCH larger since we are not talking about one date. Even if peak oil is a &quot;false alarm&quot;, wHat is the worst that can happen? INcreased renewables, reduced consumption, growth of  local economies, reduced pollution.
Good sources:
peakoil.com
lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
postcarbon.org</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think it hurt anything to prepare for y2k, and this is MUCH larger since we are not talking about one date. Even if peak oil is a &#8220;false alarm&#8221;, wHat is the worst that can happen? INcreased renewables, reduced consumption, growth of  local economies, reduced pollution.<br />
Good sources:<br />
peakoil.com<br />
lifeaftertheoilcrash.net<br />
postcarbon.org</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Nielson</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-1015</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Nielson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2005 14:49:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-1015</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not so sure about this peak oil acare. It sounds suspiciously like the Y2K scare. I came across a newspaper article one time where Teddy Roosevelt was warning about the the imminent depletion of oil reserves around the turn of the last century. I have no doubt that we will eventually run out and that the transition to a new way of doing things will be required. Just how much disruption accompanies this process remains to be seen. 
People need to be careful that this is not a leftwing version of Armageddon. A good excuse to retreat and do nothing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not so sure about this peak oil acare. It sounds suspiciously like the Y2K scare. I came across a newspaper article one time where Teddy Roosevelt was warning about the the imminent depletion of oil reserves around the turn of the last century. I have no doubt that we will eventually run out and that the transition to a new way of doing things will be required. Just how much disruption accompanies this process remains to be seen.<br />
People need to be careful that this is not a leftwing version of Armageddon. A good excuse to retreat and do nothing.</p>
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		<title>By: jimbo</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-1000</link>
		<dc:creator>jimbo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 May 2005 16:18:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-1000</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not entirely sure the Runaway Greenhouse Effect and Peak Year Production are exclusive.  It seems to me they are as intimate as any passionate lovers.

At the time we&#039;ll need cheap and plentiful oil most, while suffering from the crisis that Lovelock believes we&#039;re to endure (me too, for what that&#039;s worth), we&#039;ll be bereft of the single most important energy source with which to power possible interventions to ameliorate the effects of the crisis.

In any case, why make one crisis rise in stature over another? Whatever effects the Greenhouse may bring, the jury is still out and I think it&#039;s safe to say we won&#039;t like it, there is one indisputable fact: oil will cease.

Every aspect of our way of life has assumed a cheap and plentiful energy source.  What happens to the fabric of our World when we have North America pitted against China for control of the last remaining barrels?  Can you feel the ghosts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki wailing? I think I can.

jimbo
;-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not entirely sure the Runaway Greenhouse Effect and Peak Year Production are exclusive.  It seems to me they are as intimate as any passionate lovers.</p>
<p>At the time we&#8217;ll need cheap and plentiful oil most, while suffering from the crisis that Lovelock believes we&#8217;re to endure (me too, for what that&#8217;s worth), we&#8217;ll be bereft of the single most important energy source with which to power possible interventions to ameliorate the effects of the crisis.</p>
<p>In any case, why make one crisis rise in stature over another? Whatever effects the Greenhouse may bring, the jury is still out and I think it&#8217;s safe to say we won&#8217;t like it, there is one indisputable fact: oil will cease.</p>
<p>Every aspect of our way of life has assumed a cheap and plentiful energy source.  What happens to the fabric of our World when we have North America pitted against China for control of the last remaining barrels?  Can you feel the ghosts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki wailing? I think I can.</p>
<p>jimbo<br />
 <img src='http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Daniel Taylor</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-973</link>
		<dc:creator>Daniel Taylor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 May 2005 00:01:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-973</guid>
		<description>The best thing for the west and probably also the only thing that can save the &quot;south&quot; would be for the oil to run out. Venus boils at 450 degrees celcius from runaway greenhouse effect while Mercury sits at a pleasant 350 degrees celcius, even though it&#039;s closer to the sun. 

Its unfortunate that the famines and plagues of global warming and global drought effect the economically powerless first - who sadly must do all the dying in the name of progress. 

Meanwhile no changes will be made to greenhouse emissions because China and the United States are battling for control of the hothouse, like frogs boiling slowly ...

Daniel</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The best thing for the west and probably also the only thing that can save the &#8220;south&#8221; would be for the oil to run out. Venus boils at 450 degrees celcius from runaway greenhouse effect while Mercury sits at a pleasant 350 degrees celcius, even though it&#8217;s closer to the sun. </p>
<p>Its unfortunate that the famines and plagues of global warming and global drought effect the economically powerless first &#8211; who sadly must do all the dying in the name of progress. </p>
<p>Meanwhile no changes will be made to greenhouse emissions because China and the United States are battling for control of the hothouse, like frogs boiling slowly &#8230;</p>
<p>Daniel</p>
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		<title>By: mary</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-936</link>
		<dc:creator>mary</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 May 2005 20:57:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-936</guid>
		<description>at first people get excited about peak oil thinking we will ease up on the environment and global warming. problem is, prior to fossil fuels people used wood and animals to do their work for them. people will burn anything to stay warm.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>at first people get excited about peak oil thinking we will ease up on the environment and global warming. problem is, prior to fossil fuels people used wood and animals to do their work for them. people will burn anything to stay warm.</p>
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		<title>By: lin</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-930</link>
		<dc:creator>lin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 May 2005 15:27:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-930</guid>
		<description>Speaking of politcal mischief, as I read this post I happened to be in the middle of Mike Ruppert&#039;s descriptions of what he call &quot;the empire&#039;s darker agenda&quot;, in Crossing the Rubicon.  Ruppert&#039;s prognosis for the citizens of the Empire and the world make Kuntsler&#039;s scenario sound positively utopian.  How can you discuss peak oil and not delve into &quot;political mischief&quot;?  Also, why isn&#039;t there more discussion about PO from the left?  It seems curiously asbent.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking of politcal mischief, as I read this post I happened to be in the middle of Mike Ruppert&#8217;s descriptions of what he call &#8220;the empire&#8217;s darker agenda&#8221;, in Crossing the Rubicon.  Ruppert&#8217;s prognosis for the citizens of the Empire and the world make Kuntsler&#8217;s scenario sound positively utopian.  How can you discuss peak oil and not delve into &#8220;political mischief&#8221;?  Also, why isn&#8217;t there more discussion about PO from the left?  It seems curiously asbent.</p>
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		<title>By: m.c.</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-906</link>
		<dc:creator>m.c.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2005 00:22:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-906</guid>
		<description>Correction: James Lovelock, not Locklock. Sorry...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Correction: James Lovelock, not Locklock. Sorry&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: m.c.</title>
		<link>http://www.feralscholar.org/blog/index.php/2005/05/14/after-the-oil-is-gone/#comment-905</link>
		<dc:creator>m.c.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 May 2005 23:23:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=98#comment-905</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not a medic, but in ERs don&#039;t doctors &amp; nurses usually start with the most pressing pathologies first? Triage?

If Global Warming follows the worst-case scenario, James Howard Kunstler&#039;s predictions will be small potatoes compared with the RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE EFFECT where at some point conditions speed up exponetially and become irreversible. 

This is why the Kyoto Treaty is so important, some serious environmentalists even believe Kyoto is inadequate. The next Century is make-or-break // live or die for the whole planet if you prefer more dramatic language, many assert. Got your attention yet??? Then again, John Bolton could start thermonuclear WWIII or we could get hit by a stealthy killer asteroid out there with Earth&#039;s name on it. Apart from these two, Global Warming is the single greatest threat to us all.

The single best book I&#039;ve come across is &quot;The Next Hundred Years: Shaping The Fate Of Our Living Earth&quot; by Jonathan Weiner. He won a Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction for another one of his books and currently teaches at Princeton University. Written in 1990, it brings together most of the pieces in a comprehensible way and introduces James Locklock and his Gaia Theory.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not a medic, but in ERs don&#8217;t doctors &#038; nurses usually start with the most pressing pathologies first? Triage?</p>
<p>If Global Warming follows the worst-case scenario, James Howard Kunstler&#8217;s predictions will be small potatoes compared with the RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE EFFECT where at some point conditions speed up exponetially and become irreversible. </p>
<p>This is why the Kyoto Treaty is so important, some serious environmentalists even believe Kyoto is inadequate. The next Century is make-or-break // live or die for the whole planet if you prefer more dramatic language, many assert. Got your attention yet??? Then again, John Bolton could start thermonuclear WWIII or we could get hit by a stealthy killer asteroid out there with Earth&#8217;s name on it. Apart from these two, Global Warming is the single greatest threat to us all.</p>
<p>The single best book I&#8217;ve come across is &#8220;The Next Hundred Years: Shaping The Fate Of Our Living Earth&#8221; by Jonathan Weiner. He won a Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction for another one of his books and currently teaches at Princeton University. Written in 1990, it brings together most of the pieces in a comprehensible way and introduces James Locklock and his Gaia Theory.</p>
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