Good Morning, Vietnam!
Nouri al Maliki, at the behest of his American masters, has thrown the new Army of the Republic of Vietnam against the militias of the most powerful and cohesive popular movement in Iraq, that of Muqtada al Sadr. By all accounts, even with their American advisers, tactical air and intelligence support, this operation appears to be a stupendous failure; the Mehdi Army of Sadr is reported to be routing the Iraqi “government” forces at every turn.
Moreover, it has ignited an uprising that stretches from Baghdad to Basra and all points in between. This flagrant violation of the ceasefire that the Sadrists renewed only days ago for six additional months, by the American-controlled puppet government, has set the stage for the most dangerous moment in Iraq for the occupation forces since the dual rebellions in Fallujah and Najaf in April 2004.
It has also quite probably signed the death warrant for the Iranian-trained and supported militias of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the foundation of Maliki’s last thread of legitimacy as an “Iraqi government.”
The calculation is that this “strike” by Mailiki’s forces — many reported to have shed their uniforms and joined the Mehdi Army — will interrupt the breathing space that the US believes Sadr was using to rest, refit, and professionalize his forces… who the press calls “militants,” as it calls the Maliki forces “Iraqis.”
The same US press, which has parroted the absurd claims of “surge success” for months now, a success that was based on successful ethnic cleansing in Baghdad combined with the Mehdi Army’s ceasefire, will now have to tie itself in rhetorical knots to explain how this success is now adrift in the columns of black smoke rising from one of the two main oil pipelines passing through the port-transit city of Basra, and why rocket-propelled grenades and mortar rounds are splashing onto the Green Zone like a storm.
This past January, I pointed out in a Truthdig article, that “The principle aim of The Surge is to break the power of Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr not only has the seats in the Potemkin parliament of Iraq that put Maliki (a leader in a relatively small Shiite party, the Dawa) into power against the SCIRI (the largest parliamentary faction); he commands the ferocious loyalty of two and a half million people and has an 80,000-strong militia concentrated a stone’s throw from the U.S.-protected Green Zone in Baghdad. Baghdad has about 6 million people; New York City has 8 million, just by way of comparison. The population of Sadr City, the “neighborhood” under the leadership of Sadr, is approximately that of Brooklyn.”
If I could figure this out from Raleigh, NC, why can’t the press figure it out with reporters embedded at the Green Zone? Perhaps I just answered my own question.
Just as was pointed out 32 months ago, the American occupation has been thrown into alliance with Iranian-backed partitionist Shia formations (by pressure from Sadr, actually), yet it cannot afford the dangers inhering in Iraqi partition. Yet the most popular nationalist, anti-partition Shia leader in Iraq — Muqtada al Sadr — cannot be relied upon to support either the occupation (part of the plan for permanent US bases in Iraq) or the oil law that lies near the center of the frozen heart of the occupation.
And so, his power must be destroyed… if that is even possible.
Now the US has plunged the knife into the back of even the obedient Kurds, allowing Turkish forces to rampage through Iraqi Kurdistan. The list of allies is shrinking; and the myth of “surge-success” evaporates.
Good morning, Vietnam.
Cliss:
Some comments -
1. Muqtada al Sadr seems to be pursuing a strategy of dividing US troops and drawing them out of Baghdad. There are reports of simultaneous bombings in both Baghdad and Basra.
2. Of the two cities, Basra is more vulnerable. If Basra falls, then US troops will be forced to move into Basra. Basra is the only port in Iraq - oil gets transported out of there, and it’s also an extremely important supply route for US troops - equipment, food, materials = incredibly vulnerable. This seems to be the plan - draw US troops out of Baghdad to defend Basra. Next: al Sadr supporters storm the Iraqi Government. Declare victory. Demand that the U.S. get out immediately.
3. U.S. strategy has been a series of misjudgements of the problems and the misapplications of the solutions. Problems which could have had a diplomatic solution had a bomb dropped on top of them. The US’s first option seems to always be pull out the heavy artillery; just drop bombs on the problems in the hope that they will go away.
4. If Basra falls, it’s doubtful they can bomb the city indiscriminately. There is an oil facility and the Port can not sustain any damage; plus the oil pipeline. Also roads need to be in good repair for the supply vehicles.
5. After the smoke clears, Muqtada al Sadr will emerge as the power broker in Iraq. He has shown himself to be shrewd, 10 steps ahead of the slow-moving U.S. behemoth. He’s a popular leader. He’s survived several assassination attempts.
6. The only real power the US holds in this situation is to divide and conquer. That’s a position of extreme weakness.
7. The Iraqi troops working for Al Maliki should be considered to be “chameleons” meaning, at the least sign of trouble, they will abandon their allegiance to this unpopular man and go with Al Sadr.
9. My only advice to Mr. Petraeus would be: “You underestimate Muqtada Al Sadr at your own peril. The problems you are facing defy a military solution”.
27 March 2008, 5:59 pmpeggy:
“The problems you are facing defy a military solution”.
Exactly. I think this is true of every problem on earth that might be named.
27 March 2008, 8:06 pmKevin:
Stan,
Great essay, but I have some questions about the deal cut with the Sunni insurgency. Although JAM’s (the Mehdi Army for those unfamiliar with acronyms) ceasefire was a significant factor in the “success” of the surge the MSM constantly harped about the deal cut by the Sunnis against the so called Al-Qaeda in Iraq as being the most important part of the surge. Case in point was when our Coward in Chief met with a Sunni sheik that used to fight the Occupation forces but then accepted American aid after a deal was cut. Also the so called normalcy that the MSM reported in Fallujah suggested this.
As troop deaths declined (until recently) the MSM talked less and less about the Sunnis. I was wondering if you had heard anything about how the Sunnis have been reacting to recent developments with JAM in Iraq? I know it is a vague question but the MSM has been really lacking in Iraq coverage lately and info about recent developments have hard to come by. Unless of course you believe the MSM when they say things are getting better in Iraq.
All I am trying to say is that Bush’s surge has been a success in that aspect since reliable info on recent developments in Iraq has been exceedingly difficult to come by.
STAN: The deal wasn’t cut without big bucks. In Anbar, they have been paying guerrillas to not attack Americans and accept weapons and training “to fight al Qaeda,” a reference to foreign fighters as well as rival political Islamists from Iraq. This was in the wake of basically ceding Anbar and parts of Saladin and Ninevah to the political control of Sunni nationalists… who have the best of all worlds now. Free money and guns from the US to fight local rivals, local political control, the opportunity to build and strengthen, and eventually turn the guns on the occupation… after the US figures out how to deal with the fact that their only allies outside of the Sunni Triangle and Kurdistan (ie, most of Iraq) are also Iranian allies. It would be funny if it weren’t such a sea of horror.
28 March 2008, 1:00 amkevin t.:
Stan, I understand that the Bush administration has paid the “insurgents” to remain quiet during the “surge” — is there any truth to that?
28 March 2008, 1:38 pmCharles:
4. If Basra falls, it’s doubtful they can bomb the city indiscriminately. There is an oil facility and the Port can not sustain any damage; plus the oil pipeline. Also roads need to be in good repair for the supply vehicles.
^^^^
CB: If they can’t get the oil out, that might raise the price of oil and oil profits, which benefits the Bush sector of the capitalists.
28 March 2008, 3:11 pmY.K.:
I’d appreciate a link / reference to analysis on the outflow of Iraq’s oil over the last five years of the aptly named “sea of horror”.
First on the failure of the surge, second on changing geopolitics:
“Muqtada cuts free”:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JC28Ak03.html
“Russia challenges US in the Islamic world”
29 March 2008, 3:45 pmhttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JC29Ag01.html
Stan:
You bet your bippee there is.
FULL
29 March 2008, 4:59 pmTimothy R. Anderson:
Is evil everywhere ? Can evil be ‘ defeated ‘ ?
It’ll be interesting to see how much Mainstream Media attention is given to the upcoming One Year Anniversary of a large terrorist attack that happened on American soil in Virginia during April 2007.
Interesting to hear how American military efforts to fight the terrorists over there are ” worth it ” so the terrorists, somehow, “stay put ” and we stay safe.
Except for the numerous occasions , of course, where we are NOT safe. Not safe at all.
The Iraq War passed its 1, 800 th day at approximately the same time that one of the main actors in the wildly-popular late-1980 ’s motion picture called ” Dirty Dancing ” announced that he has cancer.
Could be that more Americans are more familiar with him than
the nuances of Shiites fighting Shiites , government security forces fighting militias , Shiites fighting Sunnis , Americans holding up a non-sovereign sovereign government in Iraq , and to be frank about it , what exactly
two trillion dollars actually looks like, when it gets
written out ………………
( sigh ) Tim R. Anderson
29 March 2008, 6:35 pmUUU:
Charles wrires,
“If they can’t get the oil out, that might raise the price of oil and oil profits, which benefits the Bush sector of the capitalists.”
Exactly! If they win they win, if they lose they win! Clever psychopaths!
29 March 2008, 8:28 pmRB W/Mi:
This Iraq War is all a fake! It’s all beyonf belief! The US can just bomb them and take all the oil! What the hey!? We were not allowed to wear our uniforms in public when I was active. I think and hope it’s all for good cause ( like the Elliot Spitzer story is so fake…”the sheriff is really going underground to clean up the bad boys and letting a black Lt.Gov to take over NY state”).
I also think it’s about selling books, and getting people to pay more attention to the news, like Moyer’s story this Sat 3-28-8 PBS, about the race issue of black America stuck in the ghettos and prisons…not the few black capitalists ones.
It’s also about the internet–where most uneducated, poor, elderly can’t make any difference in life anyway b/c they don’t have interest nor access. Spring is almost here and everybody goes away from the forums and forgets any messages writers are sending.
I’m sure this is all getting old. There won’t be any “revolt of the guards”, nor any other student uprisings. Nobody can get any proper sleep with so much to have to do and keep up with. By the time you get out of poverty, if you ever do, you’re so beat up, it’s “Just let it all ride…when do I die already?”
29 March 2008, 9:07 pmJonny:
RB W/Mi, sounds like you’re pretty demoralized. When I feel that way, I find it helps me alot to take in some ideas from our side, to counteract all the demoralizing messages from the other team. I reccomend music, there is at least a few bands in every single kind of music who are chucking out humanist lyrics and ideas. I like folk, rap. country and rock myself, and have many CDs full of amazing artists doing these types of music with lyrics and messages designed to reinvigorate and refresh us when we grow weary. I also suggest limiting your exposure to the corporate media until you are feeling more hopeful.
31 March 2008, 11:49 pmStan:
What Sadr has always displayed — to the befuddlement and chagrin of his American rivals — is an understanding of the simple formula… success in military operations is ultimately determined not by tactical, but by political, outcomes. This piece by Gareth Porter over at AT does a pretty good job of showing what that looked like in the recent humiliation of the Petraeus-Maliki Axis. The tactical outcomes were critically important, of course, but they were based in large part by the correct calculation of popular political support by Sadr, and on the gross underestimation of the same by Petraeus and Maliki. This is the second tactical/political defeat that Sadr has delivered to the US. I doubt it is the last.
Now the parliamentary elections will go forward with the Mahdi intact and immensely popularized, and Hakim’s forces substantially weakened.
Sadr continues to reach out to non-partitionist Sunnis with a message of Iraqi nationalism… and sovereignty. This brings the heliborne evacuation of the Green Zone — the Dunkirk of US hegemony — a day closer. There is certainlly panic in the backrooms.
1 April 2008, 6:32 amCharles:
the Dunkirk of US hegemony
^^^
1 April 2008, 12:38 pmAlthough in this case, the US is analagous to the fascist invaders. Maybe The Stalingrad of US hegemony ?
Stan:
Oh that it were the Stalingrad. The Nazis never recovered from that one. But the Brits did recover form Dunkirk. Anyone who thinks the US is going bleed out from Iraq isn’t paying attention. Iraq signals the end of US conventional military supremacy. It still has the global currency; it still has the bomb. Our Stalingrad will ultimately have to come fron within. We aren’t even close to that yet.
1 April 2008, 6:02 pmDeAnander:
but maybe the US’ Rubicon? the river they’re gonna wish someday they had never crossed?
actually it’s hard to come up with suitable historical analogies for the US, since history doesn’t repeat itself — as wossname said, “but it rhymes.”
it’s odd … everyone sitting around watching the great spinning top (with buzz saw attachments and spikes) that is the US hegemonic machinery, weaving and teetering drunkenly but still spinning, wobbling erratically in destructive arcs as it slows down, but still spinning, and we all wonder which will be the last wobble, where will it fall, who will be crushed under it.
1 April 2008, 6:36 pmCharles:
Yes, We, the People, are the only ones who can save US.
2 April 2008, 10:47 amAs to the role of war ( or “peace”) in that, in 1917, Russian failure in WWI was not the revolution, but it was a big factor in precipitating the overthrow of the Czar and then the bourgeois govt. “Peace, Land and Bread” was the slogan
Stan:
Follow-up stories on the US/Maliki/Hakim defeat, and the Iranian brokers that stopped the fighting.
Wikileaks
Bhadrakumar
Pepe Escobar
old stuff on Iraqi Kurdistan
from March 2003:
FULL
3 April 2008, 5:41 ampierre:
Stan, what are the relationships between Moqtada Al-Sadr and the diverse factions competing for political power in Iran ?
Thanks for your insights ,
Pierre
STAN: I’m no authority, but I don’t know of any special relations between the Sadrists and Iran. The SCIRI, or whatever it’s been recently re-named, is much closer to Iran. In any case, as is usually the case in international relations, the government in power is who external entities relate to, and it would be seriously risky for those external folk to do otherwise.
5 April 2008, 9:23 amStan:
Back at home… How to Shoot Yourself in the Foot in Three Easy Steps
15 April 2008, 6:18 amStan:
A company of Iraqi soldiers abandoned their positions on Tuesday night in Sadr City, defying American soldiers who implored them to hold the line against Shiite militias.
17 April 2008, 5:52 am