The Next Shoe
As North Africa and Southwest Asia erupt against their gerontocratic leadership, much of it part of the US satrapy there, we can see evidence of the loss of US global power. Bubble reinflated for now, the inevitable crash will now also be worse, so that’s looming.
But there is another region to think of now with regard to US power, and that is Latin America. The Honduras coup of 2009, courtesy of the US State Department, the International Republican Institute, AT&T, and the Honduran oligarchy, was a desperate move to undermine ALBA and the general tendency for regional independence, followed by the abortive attempt against Ecuador’s government last year. But the two leviathans in Latin America are Brazil and Mexico. Brazil will not rebel any time soon, because it has purchased so much US debt that it has effectively lashed its own future to the US economy. Not so Mexico.
If Mexico leaves the US orbit, it will constitute another Egypt-scale political earthquake for the US; and the signs are there.
The last Mexican general election was won only through massive fraud, and the opposition was anti-neoliberal.
When Mexico goes, and it will go, stand by for a Richter 9.
Stan:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5iE3kTjfNS9Hgk_OYgK4VMlMlGVEQ?docId=5966445
18 February 2011, 9:10 pmStan:
http://www.laweekly.com/2008-10-09/film-tv/fraude-everything-is-under-control/
18 February 2011, 9:14 pmRobert Karaffa:
Thanks for this. Was in Oaxaca June last. Its all very alive on the Zocalo every day and night. And not just there. Was in 5 States of Mexico after that. From taxi drivers to bartenders…to 4 foot tall Zapotec women..its not like here..everybody seems to know the truth…and waits. Richter 9…yeah….
18 February 2011, 9:59 pmMichael Anderson:
Then it will be time for Mr. O to call out Blackwater, eh? To protect us from the truth…
18 February 2011, 11:44 pmStan:
19 February 2011, 7:49 amMark folk:
This is an interesting thought, the final step to the destuction of American imperialism. I attended a huge demonstration a few years ago in Los Angeles, primarily of Hispanics, in white tee shirts waving American flags. The Los Angeles Police Department didn’t attack the men of the demonstration, but raided a nearby park where the women and children held picnics every Sunday. the LAPD shot teargas, rubber bullets into the picnicing crowd, and beat journalists with clubs. This at a time when a Hispanic was mayor, just as there is massive imprisonments of African Americans and other non-Whites while Obama is president.
there are large numbers of latinos in southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. they emigrated because the Globilazation under Nafta made it impossible to earn a living in Mexico. If there is an uprising in Mexico, as there was primarily in Mexico City during the massive Electoral fraud last time, it will probably spill over into the Mexican communities in the US. Just asw the Pushtan uprising in Afghanistan spilled over into Pakistan, where half the Pushtans live.
This could serve as a means to unite non-White people who have traditionally be discriminated against in the US. That is, a class uprising can be fueled by race. It will of couse be opposed by race since the US is higly racist country. This scenario mentioned by Stan has not been examined leftist circles, which do not sufficiently emphasize race in its theory.
20 February 2011, 2:18 pmChristine:
Re: uprisings. A big driving factor for the demonstrations was the price of food had been going up. Egypt is a big wheat importer. Poorer countries spend proportionately more for food (50% versus 10% in industrialized countries) so they are very sensitive to price hikes. For people who live on less than $2.00 per day, even a small hike can mean the difference between eating and going hungry.
Wheat prices probably continue to go up. The spike has 2 causes > 1 is that growing areas have been hit hard: China is dealing with a severe drought. Australia’s harvest will be minimal. Russia has halted its wheat exports due to weather conditions (fires). Here in Oregon, farmers are shocked at the current bid for wheat. Farmers who had been used to making around $4/bushel (just barely covering break-even). Suddenly, they were looking at $16/bushel absolutely unheard of. Prices have settled down a bit, but if this continues we’re looking an absolute powder keg, ready to blow.
The second culprit would be the Fed’s stupid decision to QE Quantitative Easing. We have been in a period of deflation, very dangerous from the Fed’s point of view. So the “remedy” to the situation was to stoke fires of inflation to an insane level, so we’ll all go out and “spend” before prices go up. The net effect was to raise the price of everything, from food to gas. Great job there Fed.
I’m certainly glad the people of Egypt kicked out Mubarak. But maybe was incidental to the main issue: rising prices. I’m not sure what the military can do to keep things calm, can they subsidize wheat imports? That would definitely help. I’m assuming the same problem would apply to Mexico.
20 February 2011, 6:41 pmMark folk:
alarge part of the reason that grain prices have gone up is the Fed is essentially printing money. The money is used to speculate on commodity futures. Grain has not decreased everywhere. China has increased its grain harvest from lasst year aabout 3% to about 550 million tonnes, the biggest harvest in the world. And they are releasing wheat from their reserve to reduce prices. but earthpeople are eating more when they can and grain has not kept up with the increase in food consumption.
Stan, I have a question. these demonstraters appear to know military tactics of a basic sort. For example, on a bridge in Egypt they faced off the police with rocks, clubs and knives. When they were tired or wounded, they were taken to the rear and the nect rank of demostrators came to the front. The tactics of the Roman legions fighting with short swords.
How did these kids learn that stuff? and how do they maintain the discipline to keep it up for hours? The Romans trained with weapons that were twice as heavy in practice than they were in war. But where did these kids learn that stuff?
20 February 2011, 9:35 pmKim Sky:
Interesting times indeed!
02/17/2011 KPRK Radio, Daily Briefing with Ian Masters
Interview with: Mathew Rothchild and John Nickols of Nation Magazine
After all the YEARS of anti-arab propaganda in the states there is this story!
Protesters referring to Governor Scott Walker as: Governor Hosni Walker
Signs: Welcome to Cairo
This in our Tahir Square
Hosni Walker
Egypt, we watched you, now watch us.
Pictures of Mubarak
Most popular pin: Walker, the Mubarak of the Midwest
Working class snowplow drivers and government clerks went online and found ways to translate their signs into Arabic, and showed up with Arabic language signs.
Protesting bill to destroy Unions.
Firefighters came out in uniform: When in an emergency we show up. We support Unions. Above all: we are not going to let them divide us up, demand that we can do collective bargaining, treat us in a humane and responsible way.
Protesters came from all over the state: snowplow drivers, hospital workers, drivers, small business workers. Most impressive protests since Seattle.
1st day 2,000 people
2nd day 10,000 people
3rd day 30,000 people
4th day 40,000 people
5th day 50,000 people
5,000 people inside the capitol building. People occupied state capitol building, thousands and thousands staying the night inside and outside of the building.
Scott Walker threatened to call in National Guard, where largest membership of National Guard are public workers. Going to call these people out to attack themselves?
21 February 2011, 2:07 amKim Sky:
MEXICO — i wish. As long as I’ve been traveling to Mexico, since 1970. All the people you talk to mention: revolution, it is time for revolution.
It’s part of their psyche for sure! Hum… probably the most meddled with country on the planet.
21 February 2011, 2:11 amMichael Anderson:
I heard a disturbing phrase on NPR the other day, in reference to Egypt—”Is a MIDDLE-CLASS Revolution possible?”. I got the same creeped out vibe from it as when G.H.W. Bush used the phrase “New World Order” in Gulf War 1. Mmmmmm….
21 February 2011, 11:42 amMichael Anderson:
Spreading a meme?
21 February 2011, 11:43 amHenry:
Re: Brazil will not rebel any time soon, because it has purchased so much US debt that it has effectively lashed its own future to the US economy. Not so Mexico.
21 February 2011, 4:16 pm———————–
That certainly is not correct regarding Mexico. Mexico is totally dependent on the US dollar and the US economy. A full 80% of Mexico’s exports are to the US (almost 90% if you add-in Canada). Since the late Summer of 2010, it has been accumulating great quantities of US tsy’s–on the order of half a billion per month. It also requested an enormous line of credit from the IMF precisely to buy dollars to shore up the peso. As they say in Mexico, when the US sneezes Mexico catches a cold. And, “poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the US.” In reality Latin American currencies, like those of most other countries, depend on the value of the dollar. The value of the peso is directly linked to the country’s holding of dollar reserves, and their value is strictly linked to that convertibility. In short, pesos (and the same holds true for all Latin American and most other currencies) are just substitutes for dollars which, as the world’s reserve currency, functions as a kind of gold standard for the world.
Henry:
Sorry, that should read “its value (the peso’s)is strictly linked to that convertibility.
21 February 2011, 4:18 pmHenry:
Immanuel Wallerstein
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WON’T RECOVER, NOW OR EVER
Virtually everyone everywhere-economists, politicians, pundits — agrees that the world has been in some kind of economic trouble since at least 2008. And virtually everyone seems to believe that in the next few years the world will somehow “recover” from these difficulties. After all, upturns always occur after downturns. The remedies recommended vary considerably, but the idea that the system shall continue in its essential features is a deeply rooted faith.
More:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/unconventional_wisdom?page=0,9
21 February 2011, 5:45 pmHenry:
Remarkable blog that “gets it”:
Guns, Butter, and Bonuses (Money, Deficits, And MMT)
http://attempter.wordpress.com/2010/11/20/guns-bonuses-and-butter-money-deficits-and-mmt-1-of-2/
http://attempter.wordpress.com/2010/11/23/guns-butter-and-bonuses-mmt-money-and-deficits-part-2/
21 February 2011, 5:49 pm============================
Tom:
I don’t know where else to pose this, so here goes. Regarding today’s news that the Somali pirates had killed the 4 Americans they recently captured when US forces tried to rescue them, I have to ask. Will the final story on this be a revised tale of the US forces actually doing the killing in another incident of “friendly fire?”
22 February 2011, 6:44 pmI thought that up until this, the Somali pirates had never killed anyone in all of their hi-jacking. Thoughts, anyone?
Michael Anderson:
I think the U.S. forces did it….this is part and parcel of the whole scenario in Africa right now. Makes good copy for those nasty BLACK pirates killing middle-class white people, and will help rally the white, middle-class ‘troops’ in the office here at home to the defense of looting a continent wholesale.
And Obama and Hillary make more bones.
We’ve had AFRICOM for how long now?….somewhere in the Bush Regime? 2004? We have a naval task force positioned off Egypt now. We have had covert black-ops people on the ground in Iran since before we invaded Iraq. Sudan has just been divided into two countries….The new ‘nation’ Southern Sudan (Darfur) is where the oil is, and has been depopulated by years of civil war (started by whom?).
The destabilization of Africa, all at once, like the so-called ‘collapse’ of communism in the early 90′s, will be followed by a round of Wall Street looting and IMF/World Bank Neoliberal policies designed to maximize the take. There’s also the China Factor…they’ve been buying lots of land in Africa for agriculture. Destabilize China and maximize Am-er-EEK-an interests (Monsanto, Cargill, ADM, Cargill) there. GM would be proud.
And, the price of oil will further escalate, making it more profitable to extract crude from places it wasn’t extracted before, or where it has been shut down for cost reasons, with less environmental oversight.
Damn, life is good, ain’t it?
23 February 2011, 1:58 pmMichael Anderson:
PS—I’d be happy if I were wrong….
23 February 2011, 1:59 pmMark folk:
The massacre in Lybia, a tribal society, occurred as part of the army, whose officers are apparantely from different tribes, joined the revolution. Obama is making noisss like he wants to invade. I don’t know why Lybia rather than any of the other Muslim countries. Possibly a revolutionary government, aided by part of the army, is near to being put in power. Without part of the army on their side, the other revolutions are taking longer.
23 February 2011, 6:55 pmMark folk:
History is currently moving so fast that it is difficult for people to keep up. the revolutions in the Muslim countries, argely against the despotism imposed fy Western Freedom&Democracy is continuing while Obama is wrapped up the tentacles of the Israeli Lobby which he needs for the next presidental election. this has led to the US vetoing the characterization of the UN secruity council that the Israeli bulldozing of Palesitinian homes and increasing the settlements are illegal. Despite Obama’s public comments that they are illegitimate. the obvious duplicity is a consequence of the Israeli Lobby determining US foreign policiy in the Mideast, and not only there.
However the situation in Pakistan does not appear to be a c conssequence of the Israeli Lobby, except possibly indirectly. According to Wayne Madson, Obama comes from a family of CIA agensts or assets and worked for a CIA front for a year after graduating Columbia, and being mentored by Brzezinski. He was sent for a few weeks to Pakistan where his mother worked for five years. When he was growing up in Indenesia, he was sent to stay with a family whose head became president of Pakistan.
This is not irrelevant to Obama’s interest in Pakistan and the drone war there. Pakistan is fostering the Afghan war to obtain ‘strategic depth’ in its struggle with India. The killing of two Pakistani by ‘Diplomat Raymond Davis, who is not a diplomat nor is that his real name, put Obama in the position of publically defending a Contractor who may be getting away with murder. This is primarily Obama, not the Israeli Lobby, displaying a contempt for Pakistani lives that infuriates the entire country. The Council on Foreign Relations argue that a short term incident like this will have long term implications for US power.
But history has another story occurring simultaneously. No knowledgeable persons expect truth or justice from the US corproate state, American justice having gthe same relation to justicie and American media truth has to truth. But the persecution of Julian Assange through tavesties of the law has dragged Europe into the mire with the US. The collapse of the US into barbarism is dragging the West down with it. Assange is not charged with a crime, and, indeed, is obviously not guilty of absurd secual accusasions against him. But a British judge just ruled that he should be deported to Sweden, via interpol or the European police, wher he will be sent to the US to be imprisoned, tortured or murdered.
This is being done in front of the whole world. In violation of elementary concerns of law, justice and truth. These elementary virtues take a very back seat to power, oppressive power. Assange is revealing the secret truth of the West and so must be made an example of to discorage the others. But in displaying its contempt for Freedom&Democracy so publically, the West has taken another long step down the historical road of decline. When the West now talks dupliciously of Freedom&Democracy, the world will no longer yawn, it will laugh. It’s foreign policy may be vicious, but it is so ineffective that it is absurd. Because killing Assange will not kill the revelations to come, since the whole world is on his side.
24 February 2011, 9:58 amMark folk:
Mike Whitney has a piece on Counterpunch that indicates that goons were sent out to beat and poison the relatives of the young men killed by ‘Diplomat Raymond Davis.’ The uncle may die and the widow of one of the men killed is already dead from poison.
What on earth is the point of that? Why in any case did the president of the United States state publically that the CIA contractor was a diplomat wher everyone ether knew or would know he was, among other tings, Blackwater. This at a time when Petraes, who bombed, villages as usual, stated publically that the Afghans burnt their own children to blame the US for increased casualties.
US leaders appear to be going batshit crazy. They seem to be living in an exho chamber that is insulated from political and social reality. They appear so rabid that killing people seems to them the first solution. They don’t seem to care about the longer term consequences.
24 February 2011, 1:34 pmTodd Millions:
‘Whom the god’s would destroy’-I’m afraid my southern cousin’s,that you and your leaders being foaming mad is a fact me and my family have lived with for some time-couple of centuries on one branch.Layered in paradoxi of course,unlike nearly all your leaders-many americians have bouts of intermitent sanity,with brilliance to frost it.I treasure these persons and moments.Its true however you have sold your best abilities and won’t get them back.canadians have done the same.I can’t give details I afraid,as dwelling on or even mentioning what you’ve lost would become a strop for the lowest christian grade of pr claiming you still have it.Yet-your example may inspire others,if they learn the real lessons.Surely this and other sites like it are the best shot this may happen,and hopefully enough time and manouvering room is left for others too make their own mistakes-and correct for them.
24 February 2011, 5:04 pmMark folk:
Below from China’s PEOPLE’S DAILY. Pakistan has a relationshp with both the US and China, thelatter being on its border. China would naturally prefer that Pakistan split with the US but the ISI spy agency likes the US money.
But it is reasonable to suppose that the ISI is really pissed by the latest capers whcih put them in a terrible position vis-a-vie their own people.
It’s hard to tell what the US is thinking of.
“PAKISTAN’S ISI spy agency is ready to split with the CIA because of frustration over what it calls heavy-handed pressure and anger over what it believes is a covert US operation involving contract spies, according to a document.
According to a statement drafted by the ISI, supported by interviews with officials, an already-fragile relationship between the two agencies collapsed following the shooting death of two Pakistanis by Raymond Davis, a US contracted spy who is in jail in Pakistan facing possible multiple murder charges.”
24 February 2011, 8:06 pmMark folk:
If the Pakistani ISI breaks with the US, the power implications dwarf the uprisings. Pakistan is a country of 180 million and part of its military and spy system is supporting the Pushtan’s war in Afghanistan. If the ISI break with the US, that war is flat out lost, since half the Pushtans, twenty five million, live in Afghanisstan, split supposedly from the twenty five million in Pakistan by the colonial Durand line. This is a figment of colonial imagination since the supposed border is so porious that going back and forth is routine.
What are American leaders thinking of? Possibly the boundless credulity of the American people has made our leaders delusional. After putting in office an ex-alchaholic and ex-cokehead, the plutocracy has apparently bet the homestead, or rather homeland, on a CIA freak.
24 February 2011, 8:15 pmMark folk:
Historical change has occurred very slowly from the perspective of a person’s life throughout the past, and watching it is like watching paint drying or a plant growing. But it has accelerated enormously recently so that the deline of US imperialism and the rise of Chinese imperialism can been seen almonst day by day.
A front page sory of the NY Times dscribes the US withdrawing from a crucial valley in Afghanistan to the populated areas, just as the Soviets did in the last 6 months of their war. This retreat, combined with the self destructuve moves in Pakistan, is visible movement toward the destruction of American imperialism. As it is defeated in other countries, the American people will increasingly understand that the US power system is obsolete historically, as will the powerful. And this will be a boon not only for the people of the world, but for the American people as well.
25 February 2011, 1:23 pmCharles:
On February 14, Wendell Berry, famous Kentucky author and poet, with
13 others, emerged from a four-day occupation of the governor’s
office.
http://www.peoplesworld.org/sit-in-aims-to-end-coal-s-grip-on-kentucky/
Sit-in aims to end coal?s grip on Kentucky
25 February 2011, 3:15 pmMichael Anderson:
An acknowledgment of bad strategy (present and historically) by the Neolib-Straussian segment of TPTB. Right on the money, Stan:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110228-never-fight-land-war-asia?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110301&utm_content=readmore&elq=446df45a3e8645b68e2c0a12350b372d
Never Fight a Land War in Asia
By George Friedman
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, speaking at West Point, said last week that “Any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should have his head examined.” In saying this, Gates was repeating a dictum laid down by Douglas MacArthur after the Korean War, who urged the United States to avoid land wars in Asia. Given that the United States has fought four major land wars in Asia since World War II — Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq — none of which had ideal outcomes, it is useful to ask three questions: First, why is fighting a land war in Asia a bad idea? Second, why does the United States seem compelled to fight these wars? And third, what is the alternative that protects U.S. interests in Asia without large-scale military land wars?
The Hindrances of Overseas Wars
Let’s begin with the first question, the answer to which is rooted in demographics and space. The population of Iraq is currently about 32 million. Afghanistan has a population of less than 30 million. The U.S. military, all told, consists of about 1.5 million active-duty personnel (plus 980,000 in the reserves), of whom more than 550,000 belong to the Army and about 200,000 are part of the Marine Corps. Given this, it is important to note that the United States strains to deploy about 200,000 troops at any one time in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that many of these troops are in support rather than combat roles. The same was true in Vietnam, where the United States was challenged to field a maximum of about 550,000 troops (in a country much more populous than Iraq or Afghanistan) despite conscription and a larger standing army. Indeed, the same problem existed in World War II.
Read more: Never Fight a Land War in Asia | STRATFOR
1 March 2011, 12:35 pmCurt:
What are we doing now? What should we be doing?
Why are we doing this now? Why should we be doing that now?
Can these questions be asked to often?
2 March 2011, 12:37 pmShould subordinates rub these questions in the face of their superiors every morning?
Does the ideology of leadership portray the relationship of one superior and subordinate as one of command or a relationship of mentoring?
Mentoring Hmmmm isnt that something like being a father figure?
Well I guess if you have never been a father you have never had to put up with a child asking Why for 30 minutes straight as you keep onr answer after another. Damn if only I could have accussed my daughter of insinbordination I could have saved myself a lot of trouble.
Of course if we are sitting around asking ourselves why we are not working are we?! Damned nothing would get done would it?! Or wait. shit I have an ephany! Maybe a right thing might eventually get done.
Well why am I writing this here and preaching to the choir? Where should I send it? Wait a minute, it was not my idea. Why should I be sending it anywhere? I should be making supper now? Why becasue it is almost time to eat. It should be someone elses job to send this somewhere. Why, because I said so.
Curt:
Ok now for the punch line. If my timing is off blame some one else. The German Minister of Defense resigned recently. I do not follow German developments very closely anymore as they are to boring so I do not know exactly what he did to cause him to resign. It must have been something really terrible though.
2 March 2011, 1:24 pmStan:
Mexico again
7 March 2011, 3:46 pmCurt:
Kim, Henry, Charles, Marciella,
What would a reasonable drug policy be for the US look like?
I think that we should start with all options on the table.
I do not have a secret plan already figured out.
Of course for a small fee I could work on it.
7 March 2011, 6:57 pmStan:
FULL
16 March 2011, 6:43 pmStan:
Interesting electoral development in Peru.
7 June 2011, 2:37 pm